As the 2022 Jets season faded away the phrase “a quarterback away” started to be uttered in the Jet community. That isn’t something I wholeheartedly agree with, but I understand the point.
The Jets have not had a franchise quarterback in a very long time and watching Zach Wilson get booed out of the starting role when our only back-up was the drastically inexperienced Chris Streveler and the playoffs were on the line, was iron-clad evidence that we don’t have one on the roster at the moment. Wilson is another failed experiment, like Darnold before him and like Geno Smith before that. If we are totally honest, even Mark Sanchez didn’t prove himself the answer, considering he was drafted 5th overall and wound up a back-up to Nick Foles in Philadelphia by his 5th season.
What do all these QBs have in common? They were all drafted by the Jets inside the first 40 picks of the draft. 3 of them were top 5 picks. And they all failed. There is a saying that I can’t quite remember about relationships – if you keep attracting assholes, eventually you have to look at yourself and admit that maybe the asshole is you. Well, that is how I feel about the Jets drafting quarterbacks – we are the asshole.
There are still a few on the fans’ forums talking about trading up or taking a QB if there is one sitting there at 13 in the 2023 NFL draft, but I am very much in the other camp. The Jets have to think differently. In the unforgiving spotlight of New York, an alternative strategy needs to be sought. We need someone who has already proven himself in the NFL, someone who can handle pressure, media spotlight and expectation. We need a veteran.
At the time of writing this blog, it has just been announced that Derek Carr will be visiting with the Jets. By the time this is published we may well know whether he is going to be our QB1 later this year, but as of right now he is just one of the options.
There is the possibility of a Geno Smith reunion (after a stellar season for the former Jet in Seattle). There is a chance that Jimmy Garropolo make his way across the country once he is released by the 49ers. We may even see Baker Mayfield in Jets green next year, as his brief sojourn in Los Angeles comes to a close. None of these would be bad options. All would be an improvement on what we have.
Then there is the trade route. Aaron Rogers is the most talked about QB on another team this summer (just like every summer it seems), but there is also Ryan Tannehill from the Titans, Lamar Jackson from the Ravens and even Justin Fields from the Bears as possible trade targets.
So, which is it? All things being equal, which of these options do we go for?
Honestly, any of them give us a better chance of a deep playoff run than Zach being back, but my preference is for Derek Carr.
His status as a free agent means we will save valuable draft capital. Right now we have a GM that seems to know how to work the draft, so taking one or two priceless chips out of his hand on draft night would be a little like benching one of your star players for the big game. Speaking of big games, that is one of the biggest areas where I come unstuck with trading for Rodgers, specifically – he really should have more than one ring, given the amount of talent he possesses, and I can think of more than one playoff game where he has fluffed his lines. He also has a crippling cap hit which will hurt the organisation for 6 years after he retires. I would prefer Rodgers to Lamar Jackson (the injuries and the lack of progress since his MVP season), Ryan Tannehill (his record in the AFC East with Miami) or Justin Fields (amazing with his legs, but unproven with his arms), but trading for an expensive, ageing and regressing player is not the direction I would prefer to go in.
So why Carr over Geno, Jimmy or Baker? Well, once again, all of the above should be considered a boost to our current QB room, but Jimmy’s injury history worries me and Geno will always be 1 game away from losing the fan-base. Baker is someone who I don’t think has had a fair shake since he was drafted by the Browns. He has had more head coaches than he has had seasons in the league and was, in my opinion, treated really poorly by Cleveland in the Deshaun Watson saga last summer. Baker would be good, but I don’t see him considering the Jets and, honestly, I don’t see the Jets considering him.
Carr, meanwhile, seems to be option 1a or 1b for the Jets and I am all for it. The concerns about his red-zone production and his cold-weather record are mitigated by the fact that most of those cold weather games came in match-ups that took him across multiple time-zones from West to East coast and his red-zone production was behind some atrocious o-lines.
So let’s play with the idea that we manage to get Carr over the line. It probably spells the end of the line in Florham Park for Carl Lawson and Corey Davis, as we would need to free up some cap space. We may already have Lawson replaced with Jermaine Johnson and/or Michael Clemons, but Corey Davis will be a big miss as our only true downfield threat. We also need help on the o-line and at safety and we will probably be outbid for Connor McGovern, so we will need a centre as well.
With Carr in the building (or one of the other veteran free-agent QBs available to us), however, we would be able to address those needs in the draft. Personally, I would like to see us trade out of the first round for an extra 2nd and 3rd, as I think our positions of need are quite deep in those stages of the draft, but I trust Joe Douglas completely to get it right on draft day and edge us closer to an honest to God tilt at the Lombardi in 2024 and 2025 at least.
It all starts with our veteran QB – a free agent QB - a second hand Carr holding the keys to the playoffs!
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