When the NFL comes to town, no-one really thinks of it as “NFL UK games” the way we talk about the newer “NFL Germany Games”, it gets referred to as “NFL London Games” and if you Google it, that is what you get.
This is a map of the London area with its TFL zones mapped out. Massive isn’t it.
But wait …
… there’s more …
Holy shit! Apart from that decidedly European looking bit at the bottom right, what you’re looking at is a map of the UK & Ireland, and that Eye of Sauron looking dot in the South East is London. Shocking, no.
Now, this will likely come across as another case of Northern-bashing-London screed, and mostly that’s what it is. It’s hard to blame people outside of the UK for thinking of London when they hear “UK”. When someone says “America” I don’t often thing of Ohio or Wyoming, I think of New York or California.
A few weeks ago there was an article on the Green Smoke blog about this, and it did a good job of summarising the general issues I think a lot of non-London based fans have, but it got me thinking about how this plays into the longer term goals of the NFL. In particular if they decide to take the step of adding non-US franchises to the league (apart from Buffalo of course, who have been a Canadian team for many years - nearly a fifth of your home stadium attendees come from Canada; argue with facts, Bills’ fans.)
Where Should a UK Franchise Go?
To be clear, from a personal point of view I hate the idea of non-US based franchises. I think it’d flop in such a hard way that it’d have serious financial repercussions for whatever town/city gets saddled with it. Convincing players and coaches to come and stay with these teams would be a nightmare, and the whole charade would be over in less than a decade if they stuck one in the UK.
That being said, let’s talk about where it should be! Whether you like the idea or not, thinking about how this would work is a fun exercise, and if you’ve not heard it the NFL Stock Exchange went through a full expansion draft exercise last summer which is worth a watch/listen (fair warning, the name choice for the team is appalling.)
Location would be the most crucial decision for launching a non-US franchise. A non-US franchise will already face significant challenges in building a dedicated fanbase; a lot of fans aren’t going to simply abandon their current team in favour of a new one, and while we’re all willing to get together pan-fanbase for the few international games a year, we’re not going to be showing up to support a rival franchise week-in week-out. Of course, if the writers of Red Dwarf turn out to be prophets that won’t be an issue for members of this fanbase.
Data taken in 2014 showed the spread of fans throughout the UK was pretty thinly spread outside of the South East which had 27% of the NFL fans. But if you consider this a bit more broadly and really look at the data, only a 3rd of NFL fans in the UK live in the South of the UK.
More recent data on the members of this fan club shows a very similar picture, but remembers to include our Irish cousins in the mix fully, and actually points out that the non-English portion of an NFL fanbase in the UK & Ireland makes up the largest share at 35%.
Accessibility for as many fans as possible will determine if a team like this would have any chance of success. By basing the franchise in London, in my opinion, the NFL would be writing off a huge portion of a potential fanbase. People in the UK & Ireland just aren’t paying hundreds of pounds travelling hours every week on our terrible national rail service for the privilege of paying £15 for a pint.
The data suggests a more central location would give the new franchise the best chance of survival provided the league took the time to properly look at things like: transport links, current stadiums, quality of boozer etc (*cough cough* Merseyside) to allow as many fans as possible to build a relationship with the team and importantly: attend games.
Even from a relatively well connected area like Liverpool, it takes 2-3 hours to get to London, costs £120, and if you really want to enjoy the day out you need to stay over and likely end up spending another £100-£150 on food and drink. How much a ticket to one of the games would be also scares the shit out of my wallet given how much the NFL London games already are. If I want to blow through my savings I’d rather do it once a year on a trip to New York, thanks very much.
So many areas of the country outside of the capital are desperate for investment and growth opportunities. It feels like a franchise would have such a bigger opportunity to cultivate a loyal and passionate fanbase outside of London where it won’t just feel like an extension of the annual international game circus.
But the truth is probably, depressingly, that the NFL and its partners in the UK wouldn’t care about any of this. Four million fans is more than enough to make it likely that you’ll fill a stadium every week, so if the other eight to nine million fans still watch on their TV every week I imagine zero F’s will be given. Money talks, and London has that in spades to shovel around into as many likely-doomed ventures as it wants. There’s also already a lot invested in the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium with it’s retractable pitch. So this may already be a done deal for the future.
Who knows though. The NFL could look at doing something innovative with a UK franchise and make it a true UK-wide venture. The team could have no fixed home-field (the UK is a lot smaller than the majority of US States) and play their games in multiple stadiums across the UK & Ireland. Stranger things have happened.
If you liked this rant there’s always more over on my substack
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