The New York Jets of 2022 was a very good team, broken up by unfortunate injuries and appalling QB play; but enhanced by an incredible group of rookies that have set us up for a glistening period of competitive football in 2023. But there is no guarantee that the 2023 Jets will look anything like the 2022 Jets.
There is already a need to adjust the cap slightly ahead of the new season, but that need is inflated when you consider the efforts to bring in a veteran QB (likely to cost around $35m annually), so there will be cuts and restructures. Then there is the obligatory look at who is unlikely to perform at the level their salary demands – more likely cut candidates. Then we have free agency, and then we have the draft. It is highly probable, then, that the Jets will have 4 or 5 new starters next season at least, as well as potentially vast changes in rotational depth pieces – so there is pressure on Joe Douglas and his team to get it right, once again – otherwise a tilt at the trophy will not be possible. So let’s have a little look at what is likely to happen to create cap space for our new QB (whoever that may be).
Braxton Berrios will almost certainly be cut. Personally I like Braxton, but his cap hit is $8million and his offensive production on the field is more than covered by the likes of Elijah Moore. While his special teams contributions still have potential value, they do not quantify an $8million cap hit so, for me, Berrios is probably first out of the door. Corey Davis’s cut will save us $10 million with almost no dead money, so his cut also makes sense. Unlike Berrios, however, we would need to find someone to replace Davis on the field. Adding a WR in free agency is likely to cost us more than retaining Davis; but we could find someone in the draft to replace him at better value as well as giving Denzel Mims an increased snap number as well.
The other major cut candidate is Carl Lawson. Whilst I would love to keep Lawson around, his release will clear up $15million and we have Michael Clemons and Jermaine Johnson ready to step up into increased roles next season. For me, it is more important that we bring Bryce Huff back to solidify our edge rusher stock. That means we can cut Lawson, free up all that money and not have to find anyone else in free agency or the draft to replace him. That is all QB money.
The cuts of Braden Mann and Bryce Hall would save us around $5m collectively. I like Hall and would like to see him retained, but Mann is replaceable for less money; so he is probably out of the door as well.
Berrios, Davis, Lawson and Mann nets us around $32m in cap space, so we still need to create more money to pay for our QB of choice. There are one or two more cut candidates to go over.
Jordan Whitehead did not perform to his 2023 salary last season and cutting him would save us around $7m, but he is a big piece to replace, for me. A bit like with Hall, there is value in continuity in the defensive backs room. Also, he has experienced a deep playoff run and knows what it takes to win a Lombardi. Who else on our D can say that? He is one I would keep, but I understand the argument to cut him.
Ashtyn Davis, another member of the Safety group who has underwhelmed, would save us around $2.5m if he were cut. He has value on special teams and he is capable of big plays, so I would like to keep him, but I suspect the Jets staff are looking at 2022 undrafted rookie, Tony Adams, to have a bigger role next season, so I think Davis may be gone.
Duane Brown will cost the Jets something over the next couple of seasons, regardless of whether we cut him this year or next. He is experienced and a leader, so it may make sense to keep him around; but we could save $10m against the immediate cap by cutting him after June 1st; so perhaps he is one we look to move on from, knowing that Tackle is a spot we are going to have to address in the draft.
So by adding Davis and Brown to our earlier cuts, that takes us to about $45m with holes now created at Tackle, Receiver, Safety and Punter.
There is a little restructuring that can be done to free up more money. CJ Mosley is due $21million, but was restructured just 12 months ago, so another restructure could make his 2024 hit harder to swallow. Laken Tomlinson did not justify his salary in 2022 and is due $17million and CJ Uzomah is owed $10million. I am honestly not sure if either one could be restructured so early into their Jets careers, but I hate how much they are costing us in the short term and I don’t see us getting out of either contract in the near future, either. All three of these guys are key pieces for the locker room, with all three having playoff experience with Baltimore, San Francisco and Cincinnati respectively. It’s just like with Whitehead’s situation – a winning mentality and a strong locker room presence has additional value to a team beyond what they bring on the field – and it’s not like these are bad players. In short, we may be able to save a little here, but it probably makes sense to eat these big contracts and look elsewhere to save money. Restructuring John Frankklin-Myers might be more realistic. He is a big player for us and keeping him around for longer is clearly a priority for Joe Douglas and the Jets front office. If we could save $5m by restructuring his contract that would take us up to $50m and we wouldn’t have to push any more of Mosley’s contract back.
Next up is the Quinnen Williams situation. His new contract is arguably as important as finding that elusive QB, but by handing him the bag now, we may be able to actually save money against the 2023 cap. He is currently costing $9.5m for 2023. By extending him and handing him a sizeable signing bonus, we could potentially have him cost us less from a cap perspective. How much less? Who knows, but at least $3-5m.
So that leaves the Jets with around $53m in cap space and a few unrestricted free agents to deal with. There are some who barely need discussing – Greg the leg is going nowhere. Nate Herbig, Ty Johnson and Lamarcus Joyner will be brought back, too. I could see LDT being retained if the numbers were right, as well. Surely we have learned from 2022 and understand the importance of depth on the o-line?
There are a few rooms that could be hit badly by a fluctuating free agency market, however. The first and most prevalent of these is that offensive line room. George Fant had a down year in 2022, but he was affected by injury and I would not be surprised if another team out there is willing to pay him more than the Jets will. Many fans will want to see Fant released, but if we are cutting Duane Brown that leaves us very thin at Tackle, so we would have to bring someone in to fill that gap. Can we find someone in free agency who is better than Fant and is going to cost us less money? Maybe. Then there is Center. Both Dan Feeney and Connor McGovern are set to hit the market this offseason and McGovern will likely get paid by someone. That would leave us with zero Centers on the books. Crazy as it seems, then, retaining Dan Feeney could be crucial for continuity. The Defensive Tackle room could be a lonely place in 2023, with Solomon Thomas, Sheldon Rankins and Nathan Shepherd all set to test the market. I imagine that Rankins will get paid more to play elsewhere next year and Shepherd may have run out of time to make an impact as a Jet. Personally, I like Thomas and he would be the one I would bring back for the right money, but I would also prioritise the position in the draft and free agency. Finally, the Linebacker room. I don’t think we will struggle to re-sign Kwon Alexander and, while there is talk of Quincy Williams being able to demand a higher number elsewhere, I think we will get something done with him – he will want to win with his brother.
The biggest hole in all of that, then, is Center – I think we will NEED to draft one, as I don’t see us being able to afford McGovern and it is not a strong free-agency market for the position.
I haven’t mentioned Mike White. I would love to keep him around, but I am worried that when we bring in a presumptive starter he may look elsewhere for a better chance of getting on the field. I don’t think it is about money – we are not retaining Flacco and Streveler isn’t costing us much, so I imagine we can create the space for White if necessary – I just don’t see him wanting to stay as a back-up. I hope I am wrong.
Going in to free agency and the draft, then, we need additions at Center, Receiver, Tackle, Safety and Defensive Tackle. The first 2 of those, at least, would need to be starters and I don’t think we have the money to go after a starting calibre player in free agency. Veteran Tackles are always expensive, too, so the two markets I would like to look at are Safety and DT. With our QB and draft class accounting for about $45million and adding in the money saved from letting some players walk, I am guessing we will have no more than $20million to play with for those two positions.
Straight away that takes the likes of Jessie Bates or Gardner-Johnson are out of the conversation. I have seen Poyer from Buffalo discussed, but I would not be surprised if another old Niner makes his way across the country. Jimmie Ward is expected to make around $7million a year for 2 years. He knows Saleh (who actually moved him to Free Safety and got him the starting job in that role) and the system, and he has Superbowl experience – he led the 49ers in tackles in the big game in 2020. That would leave us with a starting Safety duo of Whitehead and Ward, both of whom have played well in a Superbowl.
In terms of Defensive Tackle – well we retained Solomon Thomas and extended Quinnen Williams, remember, but we still need help there in my opinion. The player I would look at for the Jets to bring in is Larry Ogunjobi, who picked the Steelers over us last year. The fact that the Jets have already had him in the building, and the fact that he is coming off a down year in Pittsburgh makes him a likely addition, in my opinion. He is likely to cost less than Sheldon Rankins and is 1 year removed from a 9 sack season with eventual Superbowl runners-up, Cincinnati. He is also a player who has been signed by 3 different AFC North teams, which shows he is sought after by coaching staffs that see a lot of him. How much? I don’t think anyone will give him a long contract, so he is probably looking at a one year deal in the $5m range. That leaves about $7m for Joe D to fill in gaps once the dust has settled after the draft and all the premier undrafted rookies have show their worth in training camp. Perhaps a punting competition will take place in Florham Park in late summer.
And so, what of the draft itself? We still have needs at Center, Receiver and Tackle and we have the 13th overall pick. Okay – so let’s talk about it – Mekhi Becton could still be our long-term solution at Left Tackle. So could AVT, by the way. For those reasons I am firmly in the camp of wanting someone versatile to fill that hole. We could end up with our draftee challenging at either Tackle spot or on the interior, by drafting smartly. I have seen Skoronski and Jones talked about, but they are Tackles first and foremost. Similarly, O’Cyrus Torrence is just a Guard. The one who has elite gameplay across the line is Paris Johnson. If he is gone by 13, I simply wouldn’t take a Tackle there. There is no Center worth taking at 13 overall, either, so how about the Receiver market? Quentin Johnston looks the real deal and his ability to shake off defenders would be scary opposite Garrett Wilson. Like Paris Johnson, however, I think he will be gone by pick 13.
So how about this? If Paris or Quentin are there at 13, take them, otherwise – trade back. There is depth at both positions in the middle rounds, and if you can get a 2nd and a 3rd as well as future 1st to move back, I would do it.
The receiver I really like is Jalin Hyatt, a 6’0” vertical threat out of Tennessee with 18.9 yards per catch last season and 15 TDs. He is likely a day 2 pick and I would take him in the 2nd round all day. So if we traded back and took Hyatt, could we not also trade back for our offensive line holes as well? The answer is – yes.
There are a few Tackles that could drop into the second round and depth at the position in the 3rd and 4th rounds, too. I think if we couldn’t pick up Paris in the first, I would actually wait until the 3rd round and go after a starting center in the 2nd round. Cody Mauch is a versatile Tackle that can play guard (or even center) and will be available, in all likelihood, in the 3rd round. He allowed just 1 sack last year playing in North Dakota. If he can push all the presumptive starters in Becton, Mitchell, Tomlinson and AVT, he will be an ideal addition to the Jets offensive trenches.
John-Michael Schmitz is the Center everyone is talking about in this year’s draft. There is a chance he goes late in the first round, but I imagine he will be available when the Jets pick on day two.
If we ended up with future draft capital and Schmitz, Hyatt and Mauch with our first three picks, I think that would give us a solid draft and we would be adding at least 2 starters in Schmitz and Hyatt. Add in new starters at free safety, defensive tackle and, of course, quarter back and you have a very different looking Jets team in 2023. We can only hope the changes made take us forwards towards the playoffs and beyond.
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